September 2025 Market Update

Text reads September MARKET UPDATE over a dark, abstract background with diagonal lines and a faint image of a truck on the right side, suggesting a business or financial theme.

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

Limited volatility in the market is expected until mid/late October.
Demand will remain stable to slightly down until we get closer to the holiday season.
U.S. – China trade talks continue.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in August which was stronger than expected.
Rising operating costs could likely put pressure on carriers to increase rates.
The Middle East tension has caused some concerns around the oil volatility in the market.
Labor market is still weak: Only 22,000 jobs added in August.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%.
30-year fixed mortgage is sitting at 6.35% in September.

LTL

Dayton Freight is relocating in Illinois to a larger facility with additional doors.
- 32 door center in Mt. Vernon, IL
CASS data shows LTL volume down in 2025 vs. previous years.
- 7% volume decrease y/y in September.
- Several key LTL carriers also reported tonnage decline in September and year-over-year.
FedEx Freight extends new class rules changes to December 1^st
Key Information for LTL shippers when requesting pricing.
- Dimensions, Class, NMFC numbers, and weights are critical to obtain correct pricing on the front end of your shipment.

Truckload

Van spot rates were increased (1.0%) vs. this same time last year but down slightly (0.5%) vs. last month.
- Capacity grew tighter by 60.3% compared to last year but down 10.1% compared to last month.
- September Van contracted pricing is up $.37 per mile over the spot market.
Reefer spot rates increased (0.4%) vs. last year but decreased (0.9%) vs. last month.
- Capacity grew tighter by 74.0% vs. last year but improved 12.2% vs. last month.
- September Reefer contracted pricing is tracking up $.32 per mile over the spot market.
Flatbed spot rates were down (0.4%) vs. last year and (0.9%) vs. last month.
- Capacity grew tighter by 108.0% vs. last year but improved by 13.1% over last month.
- September Flatbed contracted pricing is tracking up $0.57 per mile over the spot market.

Bar chart shows spot market rates per mile from June to September: Van at $2.05, Flatbed at $2.51-$2.57, Reefer at $2.37-$2.44. Rates remain steady for each type across months.

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

Outbound tender volume dropped back down this month and is still trending below both 2023 and 2024 volumes. Market should see an uptick in volume as we get closer to the holiday season.

Line graph showing the Outbound Tender Volume Index in the US for 2023 and 2022, with three colored lines (green, pink, blue) fluctuating across months from January to December, indicating shipping trends.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

Overall Rejects continue to remain higher than 2023 and 2024.
- Capacity still reflects a tighter market over 2024, but the overall demand of freight is still low.

A line graph shows the Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI.USA) for 2021, 2022, and 2023, with all years trending downward and diverging, ending with 2023 at 5.51, 2022 at 3.24, and 2021 at 8.02.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections are down slightly vs. this same time last year.
- Rejections fluctuated based on the unknows the current market is facing.
Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer are improving, but still higher than this same time last year. Rejections for Reefer jumped over Flatbed this month.
- Keep a close eye on your carrier capacity as we creep closer to the holiday season.
White line – Van: Van Rejections remain slightly vs. 2024 but still are not having a large impact on capacity and rates.
- Rejections continue to fluctuate month-over-month but still remain flat since the start of this year.

Line graph showing the Van Outbound Tender Reject Index (VOTRI.USA) with three colored lines, tracking data from 2019 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 40, highlighting index fluctuations over time.

Carrier Authorities

This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
- Authorities are down vs. this same time last year and remain down month-over-month.

Line graph showing net changes in U.S. trucking authorities from October 2020 to mid-2025. Positive values trend until late 2022, then mostly negative. The latest value shown is -947.

Demand vs. Capacity Metrics – August 2025

Table showing National FTL Sub Mode ratios: Dry Van 6:1 (last year 4:1), Reefer 10:1 (last year 6:1), Flatbed 20:1 (last year 10:1). Demand exceeds capacity in all categories.

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

Import Volumes peaked in July; we are now trending 10% below 2024 levels.
Ports expected to be moderate in Q4, no anticipated surge before Golden Week.
Ocean spot rates trend downward based on weaker demand.
Shippers should look to add lead time to loads moving international to avoid overpaying with temporary spikes.
S. Container import volume increased in August over July. September showed flat to as slow decline as we head into the last week.

Line graph showing U.S. container import volumes from 2021-2025, with data for each year marked in different colors. All years show monthly fluctuations, with 2021 generally higher early in the year.

Line chart showing inbound ocean TEUs volume index for the USA with five color-coded lines (2020-2024), tracking monthly trends from January to December. The index peaks and dips at various points for each year.

Canadian News

Outbound tender rejects increase as we head into the end of August. Rejections are still low vs. historical trends, but something to keep an eye on.
Inbound tender rejections were up in August over July.
Truck orders jumped up in June over May.
Spot rates also jumped slightly (1.7%) vs. May.

Line graph showing the Outbound Tender Reject Index in Canada for 2021, 2022, and 2023, with each year represented by different colored lines. The data shows a general decline from January to December.

A line graph shows the Inbound Tender Reject Index for Canada from 2021 to 2023, with each year represented by a different colored line, all generally trending downward.

Spot Market Insights

Infographic with four sections: Demand (Loads) +22.1%, Supply (Trucks) +15.0%, Market Pressure +6.1% (all in green), and Spot Rates -0.4% (in red). Source is Truckstop.com.

Fuel Forecast – DOE

2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 finished lower at an average $3.631/gallon, and Q2 finished at $3.555/gallon.
Fuel for Q3-Q4 of 2025 is forecasted at an average of $3.711/gallon.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2020 – August 31, 2025

A line graph shows monthly retail diesel prices rising steeply from 2020 to mid-2022, then declining and stabilizing. A short black line forecasts a slight price dip from mid-2024 to early 2025.

Price Index Performance: 2017 -2025, By Quarter, Through August Q3 2025

Line graph showing index changes from 2017 to 2023 for Parcel, TL, PPI: Final Demand - Finished Goods, and LTL, with Parcel highest and LTL lowest. Lines mostly trend upward, peaking around 2022 before stabilizing or dipping.

State of the U.S. Transportation Market

What Does This Data Mean?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. In other words, the PPI measures the trend of the cost of everything manufactured in the United States.

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