October 2026 Market Update

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Freight capacity remains tight despite easing tender rejections, while rising contract rates point to higher costs in 2027 bids. Shippers need to secure capacity now and manage fuel surcharges, tariffs and border access, which are driving total costs alongside linehaul rates.

Rejections eased, but the market isn’t loosening

• Van and reefer tender rejections dropped month over month in October. Don’t read that as relief. Spot rates rose or held steady across all modes: dry van +2% to $3.48/mi, reefer +1% to $3.97/mi and flatbed flat at $3.62/mi. All three sit 44–49% above last year. Rejections are still far above 2025: van +107% year over year, reefer +43% and flatbed +17%. Flatbed rejections also jumped 28% in a single month to 18.18%. Dry van tender volume is down 3% year over year while rejections have doubled. Less freight is being offered, and more of it is being turned down. That’s shrinking capacity, not rising demand. Q4 holiday tightness is still ahead.

Contract rates are catching up to spot, so 2027 bids will reset higher

• Contract rates moved this month. Dry van contract rates rose 2.6% to $2.75/mi, narrowing the gap to spot rates to $0.73/mi. Reefer contract rates jumped 6% to $2.53/mi, but the gap to spot rates is still $1.44/mi. Flatbed contract rates remain above spot rates, at $4.05 versus $3.62. Carriers are using contract pricing to recover a year of cost inflation. Expect that to carry into 2027 bid season. Shippers who protect routing guide capacity now will avoid paying spot prices later. LTL is doing the same thing: carriers are raising rates earlier and more sharply than usual.

What you pay beyond the linehaul rate is now the bigger cost risk

• Diesel is at $6.18/gal, up 77% year over year. Fuel surcharges are behind most of the LTL cost increase while base rates hold steady. On the water, fuel and security risks keep ocean rates high. But a wave of new ships and the return to the Red Sea favor shippers going into 2027 contracts. At the borders, Canada’s 50% Section 338 duties, import bans and $27.6B in counter-tariffs are now the baseline, not a pause. In Mexico, about 25,000 driver visas have been revoked, and El Paso is rejecting about 20% of loads. Across every mode, fuel terms, duties and border access now drive cost as much as the rate per mile.

View the full October 2026 Market Update below.