October 2024 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• Inflation continues to fall as we head into Q4, and more interest rate cuts are likely to make an impact to the market in 2025.
• Unemployment fell to 4.1%, with the labor force participation keeping strong at 62.7%.
• New Orders increased in September 1.5 points making the mark 46.1.
• Inventory levels remain low, dropped 6.4% in September.
• Industrial production increased in September, by increasing 5%.

LTL

• Yellow plans to sell the remaining 112 terminals, which would allow several carriers the ability to expand.
• Saia looks to open 3 new terminals in October.
  • Akron, OH, Bowling Green & Paducah KY
• Old Dominion closed Q3 slightly better than planned – Softness in the LTL market is still making an impact to the LTL carriers.
• National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) will be rolling out density-based classification for 3PLs.
  • Shippers will soon have to know the weight and dimensions of all handling units.
    • Proposed change will be issued in January of 2025 potentially to begin in May of 2025.
  • Key Information for LTL shippers when requesting pricing.
    • Dimensions, Class, NMFC numbers, & weights are critical to getting the correct price on the front end of your shipment.

Truckload

• Van spot rates broke even vs. this same time last year but up 2.0% vs. last month. Capacity improved from last year same time by 9.8% and by 3.6% vs. last Month. October Van contracted pricing is up $.40 per mile over spot market.
• Reefer spot rates increased by 2.5% vs. this same time last year and jumped slightly 0.9% vs. last month. Capacity improved from last year this same time by 1.9% and improved by 15.8% vs. last month. October Reefer contracted pricing is tracking up $.37 per mile over spot market.
• Flatbed spot rates are up 3.6% vs. this same time last year, and up 0.4% vs. last month. Capacity decreased by 28.2% vs. this same time last year and by 22.8% over last month. October Flatbed contracted pricing is tracking up $0.64 per mile over spot market.

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

Demand still showing up vs last year, but just slightly up over 2022. As we head into the Holiday season it will be important to secure capacity in advance when applicable.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

Overall Rejects remain up over 2023. The impact of the Holiday season could increase the rejections as capacity tightens based on the overall volume.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections jumped significantly over last months report out.  The ILA port shutdown had an impact on the overall rejections in October.
• Green Line – Reefer: Rejections continue to climb slightly but have maintained so far in the month of October.
• Blue Line – Van: Rejections took a slight jump in June/July but have remained relatively flat over the last few weeks.

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • Carrier Authorities gone up and down by remain below the line. As the market increases its overall outbound volume, you will see this start to trend up.

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• Inbound TEU volume dropped in October after spiking in September for the Holiday rush.
• Ocean spot rates remain up based on congestion and container shortages.
• Port of Long Beach and Los Angeles hit record container volume in the month of September.
• ILA port strike is put on hold until January 15^th.

Canadian News

• The Canadian market was relatively unaffected by the stateside ILA port strikes.
• Inbound demand as well as rates are down, leading to an increase on the outbound rate side.
• Winter weather could lead to likely distribution in the upcoming months, that could cause re-routed shipments.
• Trailer orders gain no traction in September/October.
• September spot market posts were up 7% year-over-year, but down 9% over August.

Fuel Forecast – DOE

Average diesel fuel retail prices for 2023 averaged at $4.214/gallon through Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 fuel finished at an averaged $3.973/gallon. Fuel for Q2 finished at $3.849/gallon & Q3 averaged $3.689/gallon. Q4 is forecasted to come in around $3.540/gallon.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2019 – September 30, 2024

Price Index Performance: 2016-2023, By Quarter, Through September Q3 2024

State of the U.S. Transportation Market

What Does This Data Mean?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. In other words, the PPI measures the trend of the cost of everything Manufactured in the United States.