November 2025 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• Shippers should prepare for potential disruptions and increased rates as we head into the Holiday season.
• Demand will remain stable to slightly down until we get closer to the Holiday season.
• Retail sales rose 0.6% in October, and 5% year-over-year.
• Tariff-related delays may impact production, putting pressure on prices.
• The Middle East tension has pushed some concerns around the oil volatility in the market.
• Labor market: Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October; this is a rebound of 2 consecutive months of decline.
  • Unemployment at 4.36%, up 4.14% a year ago.
• 30-year fixed mortgage is at 6.27% in October.
• 15-year fixed mortgage is at 5.58%.

LTL

• Current Market
  • LTL is still experiencing a soft market; the down market is reflective based on lower manufacturing and more cautious consumer spending.
  • Even with demand being down, soft carrier capacity is slowly leaving the market, which could have an effect on continued price increases.
  • LTL carriers have implemented GRI’s (General Rate Increases) around 4-7% despite the down market.
  • NMFC reclassification updates are changing the LTL pricing is shifting to more of a density-based program.
    • It is very important to get a better understanding of your dimensions to avoid additional cost.
• Key Takeaways
  • Look to lock in contractual pricing were appropriate.
  • Review your packaging and dimensions to take advantage of the density-based pricing.
  • Continue to build carrier relationships as the market continues to make changes.
  • Invest or partner with a company to better utilize automation to help control cost.

Truckload

• Current Market
  • Carrier continues to grow tighter even as we see the outbound tender volume decrease.
    • Regulatory changes, such as the new CDL rule, and increased operating cost for carriers, we expect capacity to continue to tighten in 2026.
  • Tariffs on truck parts and as well as imported goods are raising cost for truckload fleets.
    • Factors on increased carrier costs which is influencing the smaller carrier pushing them out of the market.
      • Driver wages up 7.6%
      • Insurance up 12.5%
      • Equipment costs up 8.8%
• Key Takeaways
  • The TL market is at risk due to increased costs and lack of capacity.
  • Technology will be key to driving compliance with core carriers.
  • Start your planning now! Find a partner that can provide you with technology, visibility, and sustainability in a volatile market.

Reefer rates rise ahead of Thanksgiving

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

• Outbound tender volume remains relatively flat as we get closer to Thanksgiving. Outbound volume continues to trend down vs. previous years.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

• Overall Rejects still slightly up vs. last year even with less outbound volume.
  • Capacity sill playing a large role in the overall rejections remaining higher in 2025.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections trend along with last year at this same time.
  • Very important to keep a close eye on the overall outbound volume to ensure you are securing capacity in this market.
• Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer up slightly this month vs. last month.
  • Similar to flatbed, increased outbound volume will have a significant impact on capacity in the Reefer space.
• White line – Van: Van Rejections up this month vs. last month.
  • Rejections continue to fluctuate month- over-month but still remain flat since the start of this year.

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • Authorities continue to drop which is causing rejections to increase despite the overall volume decrease compared to 2024.

Demand vs. Capacity Metrics – October 2025

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• Current Market
  • U.S. imports are expected to fall in the double digits in Q4.
  • Capacity improved by 7%, but still down 15% year-over-year.
  • Ocean rates rebounded in October by 39% but remain 44% below last year.
  • U.S. – China tariffs have had a significant impact on eastbound volumes.
  • TEU volume down 0.1% vs. September, but down 7.5% year-over-year
• Key Takeaways
  • Secure space early when moving ocean freight to help control the cost.
    • Consider mini bids to help control the volatility of the market.
  • Factor in tariff-driven costs that are having an impact on heavy international lanes.

Cross Border

• Mexico exports to the U.S. have surged 13.8% year-over-year
• Inbound to Canada stronger than outbound; cross-border freight accounts for 65% of all Canadian spot posts.
• Rates generally stable, but demand still down based on a weaker U.S. retail and manufacturing productivity.
• Weather will continue to be a major factor in Canada as we get closer to winter.

Total Spot Rates

Fuel Forecast – DOE

• 2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 finished lower at an average $3.631/gallon, and Q2 finished at $3.555/gallon.
• Fuel for Q3 finished at $3.757/gallon and Q4 is tracking $3.694/gallon to close out 2025.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2020 – September 31, 2025