June 2026 Market Update

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Rising rates, hidden costs, and upcoming policy changes are reshaping the freight market heading into Q3.

THE ERA OF SHIPPER-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IS OVER

• Truckload capacity has tightened to near-balanced levels ahead of schedule, LTL carriers are enforcing pricing discipline with rates at all-time highs, and ocean spot rates have surged 50%+ in a single week on key lanes. Shippers who built budgets on 2024 and early 2025 assumptions are already absorbing costs their models didn’t anticipate.

THE COSTS HIDING BELOW THE HEADLINE RATE ARE WHERE THE REAL EXPOSURE IS

• GRIs and spot rate increases get the attention, but accessorial fees in LTL are up 8–12% and now represent 20–30% of total freight spend. Ocean shippers are getting hit with Peak Season Surcharges and BAF increases. On cross-border lanes, cargo theft, enforcement-driven capacity exits, and compliance failures at the border are adding costs.

JULY IS A CONVERGENCE POINT

• Three cross-border policy deadlines land within 30 days of each other: the USMCA joint review (July 1), Section 122 tariff expiration on Canada goods (July 24), and Mexico’s MVE electronic customs enforcement (July 31). On the ocean side, the July 1 bunker fuel adjustment is driving an early peak season that has already pulled Q3 volume into June. Domestically, the post-July 4 freight window typically brings renewed rate pressure. Shippers who act before July—locking capacity, auditing contracts, validating compliance documentation—will be in a materially better position than those who wait.

View the full June 2026 Market Update below.