June 2025 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• Unemployment is predicted to reach 4.5% at the end of June
• Inventory levels are down 5.6% MoM
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady for now

LTL

• Several LTL carriers report tonnage decreases for the first time in 22 months.
  • Saia and ABF reported tonnage dips in June.
• Forward Air announces the departure of three board members following a push from Ancora Holdings.
• Effective July 19, 2025, the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) will be rolling out density-based classification.
  • Shippers will soon have to know the weight and dimensions of all handling units.
    • You can prepare for this change by ensuring you have the proper dimensions and weights for all your LTL products.
  • Key Information for LTL shippers when requesting pricing:
    • Dimensions, Class, NMFC numbers, and weights are critical to obtaining correct pricing on the front end of your shipment.

Truckload

• Van spot rates were up slightly (1.0%) vs. this same time last year and up slightly (0.5%) vs. last month.
  • Capacity grew tighter by 31.7% compared to last year and 29.1% compared to last month.
  • June Van contracted pricing is up $.38 per mile over the spot market.
• Reefer spot rates decreased (0.4%) vs. last year but were flat (0.0%) vs. last month.
  • Capacity grew tighter by 69.8% vs. last year and 28.7% vs. last month.
  • June Reefer contracted pricing is tracking up $.39 per mile over the spot market.
• Flatbed spot rates increased (1.2%) vs. last year but flat (0.0%) vs. last month.
  • Capacity decreased by 79.5% vs. last year but improved by 8.6% over last month.
  • June Flatbed contracted pricing is tracking up $0.53 per mile over the spot market.

Low produce volumes lead to sideways market movement

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

• Outbound tender volume dropped under both 2023 and 2024 volumes. The lack of volume is still having an impact on pricing in the truckload market.   

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

• Overall Rejects continue to remain higher than 2023 and 2024.
  • Capacity still reflects a tighter market over 2024, but the overall demand for freight is still low.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections are down vs. this same time last year but overall remain low vs. the first quarter of 2025.
  • Rejections fluctuated based on the uncertainty that the current market is facing.
• Green Line – Reefer: Rejections remain slightly higher compared to 2024.
  • Rejections have remained relatively flat week over week for the month of May and June.
• White Line – Van: Rejections remain up vs. 2024 but still are not having a large impact on capacity and rates.
  • Rejections spiked in May vs. what we saw in the first quarter but have begun to come back down in June.

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • Authorities dropped in May vs. the upward trend in Q1.

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• Inbound TEUs jumped back over the June 2024 mark.
  • Ocean volume is up 28.8% MoM and right at 0.55% YoY.
• S. Container import volume drops in May, down 9.7% vs. April
• S. Container import volume remains above 2024.
• Ocean spot rates have dropped due to the increase in capacity.

Canadian News

• Outbound tender rejects drop back down after jumping up in May.
• Inbound tender rejections remain flat as we head into the end of June.
• Truck orders jumped back up (40%) in May vs. April
• Spot rates also jumped slightly (0.1%) vs. April.

Spot Market Insights

Fuel Forecast – DOE

• 2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 finished lower at an average $3.631/gallon.
• Fuel for Q2-Q4 of 2025 is forecasted at an average of $3.478/gallon.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2025

Price Index Performance: 2017 -2025, By Quarter, Through May Q2 2025

State of the U.S. Transportation Market

What Does This Data Mean?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. In other words, the PPI measures the trend of the cost of everything Manufactured in the United States.