July 2026 Market Update

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Spot rates and contract rates continue to remain inflated in July vs. the previous year. We continue to see capacity tightening and higher rejection rates across the U.S.

CAPACITY IS TIGHTENING ACROSS EVERY MODE—NOT JUST ONE

• Dry van rejections are up 183% YOY, reefer up 86%, and flatbed up 90%, even with month-over-month relief in all three. LTL carriers are pushing rate discipline (Saia’s 7.1% GRI, ABF’s 5.9%), ocean import volume eased slightly month-over-month but is still up 8.2% YOY on tariff front-loading, and cross-border capacity is shrinking on both borders—Mexico through visa and English-proficiency enforcement, Canada through the fallout from February’s carrier misclassification crackdown. This is a synchronized tightening story across the entire network, not one mode having a bad month.

RATES ARE CATCHING UP TO A COST ENVIRONMENT SHIPPERS HAVEN’T FULLY PRICED IN

• Dry van contract rates are up 15.6% YOY and climbed again this month (+3.1% MOM); flatbed contract is up 18% YOY. LTL fuel surcharges pulled back slightly in July but are still running roughly 60% above last year, and diesel at $4.80/gallon is up 28% YOY with more upside expected as Middle East unrest continues. Shippers still budgeting off 2025 assumptions are already behind on cost, not just rate

THE EXPOSURE IS SHIFTING FROM PRICE TO RELIABILITY, COMPLIANCE, AND SECURITY

• New carrier authorities keep climbing as tight capacity draws new entrants—vetting operating authority before booking matters more than ever. On the border, Mexico’s driver pool keeps shrinking under enforcement while Canada’s carrier base is still adjusting to February’s crackdown. Cargo risk is evolving too: violent theft in Mexico, carrier-identity fraud in Canada. Add in Midwest storms and heat impacting transit, and the shippers managing this market well are the ones auditing total exposure—not just the headline rate.

View the full July 2026 Market Update below.