February 2026 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• February 2026 continues to reflect a market looking to shift from historical trends.
  • Capacity constraints along with harsh weather conditions continue to have an impact on the freight market. 
• Tariffs continue to create uncertainty in the market causing an impact to freight flows.
• Retail spending has flattened as the industry has moved past the Holiday push.
• Labor market:
  • Unemployment rate currently stands at 4.43% in February 2026.

LTL

• Current Market
  • The LTL market in February 2026 remains stable but growing tighter in some key markets.
    • Volume remains soft based on a slower replenishment in the retail industry.
  • Larger LTL carriers are looking to excess additional terminal capacity to capture more volume based on the soft market.  
  • LTL pricing remains firm and disciplined by the LTL carriers despite the declining volumes.
  • NMFC reclassification updates are changing the LTL pricing is shifting to more of a density-based program.
    • It is very important to get a better understanding of your dimensions to avoid additional cost.
• Key Takeaways
  • Demand remains soft, with no clear signs of a change in the market.
  • Pricing remains disciplined with the LTL carriers.
  • Capacity is available, but we are starting to see disruptions in more of the regional market. 
  • Review your packaging and dimensions to take advantage of the density-based pricing
  • Continue to build carrier relationships as the market continues to make changes
  • Invest or partner with a company to better utilize automation to help control cost.

Truckload

• Current Market
  • Capacity and rates continue to remain high.
  • Carrier Rejections continue to tighten for the TL market.
    • Tender Rejection by Mode:
      • Van – Current Rejection rate is 13%
      • Reefer – Current Rejection rate is 20%
      • Flatbed – Current Rejection rate 24%
  • Freight volume remains down as we kick off 2026.
    • Capacity remains tight, increasing the spot rates in the market.
    • Contracted pricing begins to shift as the carriers start chasing the higher spot rates.
• Key Takeaways
  • Overall demand is soft as contracted volumes trend below the past 2 years.
  • Spot rates continue to rise as capacity and weather cause disruptions.
  • Technology will be key to driving compliance with core carriers.
  • Start your planning now! Find a partner that can provide you with technology, visibility, and sustainability in a volatile market.

SONAR

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

• Outbound tender volumes starts to come back after the dip in late January. Volume exceeds 2025 slightly for the first time this year.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

• Overall Rejections remain high as we head into 2026.
  • Capacity remains the number one reason for the rejections across all modes.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections up vs. this same time last year. 
• Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer remain up and have been impacting spot rates across the county.
• White line – Van: Van Rejections flatten out vs. last month but remain up vs. this same time last year. 

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • Authorities increased this month vs. last month.  Demand in the market is allowing carriers to come back into the TL space. 

Demand vs. Capacity Metrics – January 2026

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• Current Market
  • Ocean spot rates fell sharply in February.
    • Carriers are prioritizing network utilization over price increases currently.
  • Despite soft volumes, overcapacity still remains a long-term problem. 
  • Inbound TEUs up vs. this same time last year.
  • Outbound TEUs down vs. this same time last year.
    • Overall, both inbound and outbound TEUs are down 14%
• Key Takeaways
  • TEU demand remains weak, with no rebound signals
  • Capacity continues to pull back.
  • Rates are down 40% YoY
    • Consider mini bids to help control the volatility of the market.
  • Factors in tariff-driven cost that are having an impact on heavy international lanes

Cross Border

• Rejection rates remain high, particularly in Laredo and the South Texas Border.  
• North bound volumes remain steady into the U.S.
• Capacity on cross-boarder lanes continues to tighten as carriers leave the market.
• Cargo theft continues to rise on U.S.-Mexico lanes
• Rejection rates in Canada remain high but less extreme than Mexico.
• Winter weather will continue to have an impact on both capacity and rates.

Fuel Forecast – DOE

• 2025 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.662/gallon. 
• Fuel for Q1 2026 is forecasted at $3.566/gallon, Q2 is forecasted at $3.372/gallon, Q3 is forecasted at $3.372/gallon, and Q4 is forecasted at $3.400/gallon.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2021 – December 31, 2025