February 2025 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• Inflation jumped 3.0% in January, compared to December.
  • Increased food and energy prices had a big impact on the inflation increase.
• January job market data showed strength as the unemployment rate fell 4%.
  • Retail and other service sectors had the largest jump based on an increase in demand from consumers.
• Driver availability index rose 3.5 points in December.
  • This increase was the 31^st consecutive month where driver availability was either stable or improved.
• Trucking jobs were down during January 2025 vs. 2024.
  • This year, we started with 20,000 fewer jobs than we had in 2024.

LTL

• Overall LTL rates and demand remain steady as we progress into 2025.
  • Many LTL carriers will be looking for the opportunity to improve their Operating Ratio with the freight they handle in 2025.
  • Look for carrier expansion in 2025 to increase the overall volume moving through their network.
• The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) will be rolling out density-based classification for 3PLs.
  • Shippers will soon have to know the weight and dimensions of all handling units.
    • A vote in March will determine the go forward strategy on the new NMFTA rules.
      • Organizations can prepare for this change by ensuring you have the proper dimensions and weights for all your LTL products.
    • Key Information for LTL shippers when requesting pricing.
      • Dimensions, Class, NMFC numbers, and weights are critical to obtain correct pricing on the front end of your shipment.

Truckload

• Van spot rates were flat (0.0%) vs. this same time last year and up slightly (0.5%) vs. last month.
  • Capacity grew tighter by 49.8% compared to last year and 17.0% compared to last month.
  • February Van contracted pricing is up $.39 per mile over the spot market.
• Reefer spot rates decreased (2.1%) vs. last year but remained flat (0.0%) vs. last month.
  • Capacity grew tighter by 39.4% vs. last year and by 29.9% vs. last month.
  • February Reefer contracted pricing is tracking up $.35 per mile over the spot market.
• Flatbed spot rates are up (1.2%) vs. last year, but flat (0.0%) vs. last month.
  • Capacity decreased by 77.0% vs. last year and by 50.3% over last month.
    • February Flatbed contracted pricing is tracking up $0.64 per mile over the spot market.

Van, Reefer Rates Hit Winter Slide

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

• Outbound tender volume is lower than 2024 but still trending slightly above 2023.
  • Import volumes were up in January which could start to turn the outbound domestic tenders.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

• Overall Rejects continue to remain higher than 2023 and 2024.
  • Weather across the country has had a large impact on the overall capacity in the marketplace.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections are around the same rate that we experienced in 2024.
  • Rejections have dropped slightly this month vs. January, but nothing drastic.
• Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer remain high compared to 2024.
  • Weather continues to play a big factor in rejections for the reefer mode.
• White line – Van: Van Rejections are up slightly compared to 2024 but still are not having a large impact on capacity and rates.
  • Rejections have dropped vs. what we saw last month for the van mode.

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • We are still trending below the line of Authorities leaving the market.
  • As capacity goes, so does the number of carriers in the transportation space.

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• Inbound TEUs remain at similar volumes compared to last year.
• Volumes were strong in January as importers prepared for Chinese New Year and potential tariff impacts.
• Red Sea attacks have had a large impact on pricing, but the ceasefire will hopefully lead to carriers returning.
• Shipbuilding is forecasted to increase 8% increase in 2025, which could also have a positive impact on pricing.

Canadian News

• Rejections declined the first few weeks of January but then spiked with the announcement of potential tariffs.
  • They have since normalized since the delay in tariffs.
• Pressure remains on inbound and outbound rates, as rates continue to rise.
• Inbound tender rejects remain elevated compared to 2023 and 2024 levels.
• Outbound tenders are also up compared to 2023 and 2024.

Fuel Forecast – DOE

• 2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is forecasted to finish slightly lower at an average $3.65/gallon.
• Fuel for Q2-Q4 of 2025 is forecasted at an average of $3.624/gallon.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2020 – January 31, 2025

Price Index Performance: 2017-2025, By Quarter, Through January Q1 2025

State of the U.S. Transportation Market

What Does This Data Mean?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. In other words, the PPI measures the trend of the cost of everything Manufactured in the United States.