December 2025 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• Colder weather and the Christmas season will have an impact on the freight market.
• Capacity continues to tighten.
• Tariff-related delays may impact production, putting pressure on prices.
• Retail spending up to 4.53%
• Labor market:
  • Unemployment increased to 4.46% in November.
  • Healthcare and social assistance sectors remain strong.
• 30-year fixed mortgage is at 6.26% in December.
• 15-year fixed mortgage is at 5.37%-5.63%.

LTL

• Current Market
  • ODFL experienced a drop of 10% in tonnage in November, XPO was down 5.4%.
  • Saia and ABF reported modest increases of 1.8% and 3%.
  • Demand is still having an impact on outbound volume, however many carriers like ODFL and ABF maintain strict yield strategies.
  • NMFC reclassification updates are changing the LTL pricing is shifting to more of a density-based program.
  • It is very important to get a better understanding of your dimensions to avoid additional cost.
• Key Takeaways
  • Look to lock in contractual pricing were appropriate.
  • Review your packaging and dimensions to take advantage of the density-based pricing.
  • Continue to build carrier relationships as the market continues to make changes.
  • Invest or partner with a company to better utilize automation to help control cost.

Truckload

• Current Market
  • Capacity continues to tighten for the TL market.
    • Tender Rejection by Mode:
      • Van rose 7%
      • Reefer rose 14-15%
      • Flatbed rose 13-14%
    • Freight volume down 6% in 2025 and 4% in December.
      • Rates continue to remain strong based on the capacity in the market.
• Key Takeaways
  • The TL market is at risk due to increased costs and lack of capacity.
  • Technology will be key to driving compliance with core carriers.
  • Start your planning now! Find a partner that can provide you with technology, visibility, and sustainability in a volatile market.

SONAR

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

• Outbound tender volume drop, but capacity remains tight in the market. Volume continues to ride below historic trends.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

• Overall Rejects spike as we head into the final weeks of December.
  • Capacity has had a large impact on the rejections, despite the overall volume in 2025 being down vs. historical trends.

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections up vs. this same time last year.
  • Very important to keep a close eye on the overall outbound volume to insure you are securing capacity in this market.
• Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer up significantly this month vs. last month.
  • Similar to flatbed, increased outbound volume will have a significant impact on capacity in the Reefer space.
• White line – Van: Van Rejections remain up this month vs. last month.
  • Rejections continue to fluctuate month- over-month but remain flat since the start of this year. 

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • Authorities continue to drop which is causing rejections to increase despite the overall volume decrease compared to 2024. 

Demand vs. Capacity Metrics – October 2025

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• • Current Market
    
    
    
    • Overall global demand remained weak across most major trade lanes.
    
    
    •  Inbound ocean rates remain soft as outbound rates see a slight uplift.
    • U.S. container imports reached its lowest level since mid-2023 in December.
      • Tariffs remain the uncertainty in this space causing the drop.
  • Key Takeaways
    • Secure space early when moving ocean freight to help control the cost.
      • Consider mini bids to help control the volatility of the market.
    • Factor in tariff-driven cost that are having an impact on heavy international lanes.

Cross Border

• Major road closures across 17 states in Mexico causing disruptions in freight corridors.
• Freight rates remain stable overall despite the issues in Mexico.
• Weather in Canada causing issues on the rail and slower traffic in general.
• Canadian cross board freight despite the weather remains steady.
• Rates generally stable but U.S. capacity issues could have an impact on pricing as we head into the end of the year.

Fuel Forecast – DOE

• 2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 finished lower at an average $3.631/gallon, and Q2 finished at $3.555/gallon.
  
• Fuel for Q3 finished at $3.757/gallon and Q4 is tracking $3.753/gallon to close out 2025.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2020 – November 30, 2025