August 2026 Market Update

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Month-over-month freight relief is seasonal, not a market turn—as shrinking capacity, rising fuel and operating costs, and growing cross-border risks continue to tighten the market and increase shipper exposure.

Month-over-month relief is seasonal, not a market turn

• Spot pulled back this month in dry van (-7% MOM) and reefer (-2% MOM), and rejections dropped hard across the board—van down 24%, flatbed down 28%. That reads like loosening until you look at the year-over-year line: spot is up 45.7% in van, 46.8% in reefer, and 43% in flatbed, with rejections up 155%, 65%, and 90%. The tell is that contract rates rose month-over-month in all three modes while spot fell. Carriers are not giving anything back. This is end-of-summer seasonality sitting on top of a structurally tighter market, not capacity coming back.

Fuel and cost inflation are moving faster than your rate

• Diesel is hovering at $5.45/gallon, up 14% month-over-month and 47% year-over-year, making fuel the single biggest mover in this report. PPI rose 8.29% for the month and CPI sat at 3.3%. Contract rates are up 19.1% in dry van and 18% in flatbed, and LTL yields climbed 15.2% year-over-year at Old Dominion, with general rate increases now landing off-cycle—Saia at 7.1% and ABF at 5.9%. Any budget still built on 2025 assumptions, or on a single annual increase, is already short on cost and not just on rate.

Capacity is not idle – it is leaving, and that changes what you manage for

• RigDig counted more than 50,000 net carrier losses over the prior 12 months, and transportation sector unemployment jumped from 3.8% in June to 5.1% in July even as the national rate held flat at 4.1% on 23,000 lost payroll jobs. Soft labor is not creating available trucks; it is the mechanism by which capacity exits. New operating authorities keep climbing as tight capacity draws new entrants, so verifying operating authority before you book matters more than ever. Layer on the policy risk—a 50% Section 338 tariff on Canadian goods that applies regardless of USMCA origin, an unresolved USMCA review, and a shrinking northbound driver pool in Mexico— and the exposure has moved from price to access, compliance, and duty liability.

View the full August 2026 Market Update below.