January 2026 Market Update

Transportation Trends

General Outlook

• Colder weather is here, and snowstorms across the country are causing issues.
  • Plan, secure capacity sooner, & add transit days to buffer delays
• Capacity remains relatively high coming off the Holidays.
• July 22nd market gained relief after President Trump withdrew his threat to impose sweeping tariffs.
• Retail spending rose in December 0.6% vs. November.
• Labor market:
  • Unemployment fell to 4.40% in December.
  • Forecasts predict unemployment to peak near 4.5% in early 2026.
• 30-year fixed mortgage ranges from 5.99%-6.13%
• 15-year fixed mortgage ranges from 5.37%-5.57%

LTL

• Current Market
  • Despite a weak demand the LTL industry will still see rate increases in 2026.
    • Costs continue to increase for carriers causing an adjustment on rates.
    • Record high LTL rates in Q4 of 2025, cost per shipment remains 40% above 2018 levels.
  • LTL carriers are focused on network discipline rather than volume.  
  • A. Duie Pyle expands with an LTL hub near Port of Virginia
  • NMFC reclassification updates are changing the LTL pricing is shifting to more of a density-based program.
    • It is very important to get a better understanding of your dimensions to avoid additional cost.
• Key Takeaways
  • Demand remains weak, keeping volume soft for LTL carriers.
  • Rates will continue to rise.
  • LTL market is stable but weak heading into 2026.
  • Review your packaging and dimensions to take advantage of the density-based pricing
  • Continue to build carrier relationships as the market continues to make changes
  • Invest or partner with a company to better utilize automation to help control cost.

Truckload

• Current Market
  • Demand is still weak in the TL market but showing early signs of stabilizing.
  • Capacity continues to tighten for the TL market.
    • Tender Rejection by Mode:
      • Van – Current Rejection rate is 9.1%
      • Reefer – Current Rejection rate is 15.3%
      • Flatbed – Current Rejection rate 18.2%$
  • Freight volume remains down as we kick off 2026.
    • Capacity remains tight, increasing the spot rates in the market.
    • Contracted pricing begins to shift as the carriers start chasing the higher spot rates.
  •  
• Key Takeaways
  • Demand is soft but not collapsing
  • Capacity is shrinking quickly
  • Spot rates continue to rise.
  • Technology will be key to driving compliance with core carriers.
  • Start your planning now! Find a partner that can provide you with technology, visibility, and sustainability in a volatile market.

SONAR

Outbound Tender Volume – All Modes

• Outbound tender volume jumps back up in January, but still down vs. this same time last year.

Outbound Tender Reject – All Modes

• Overall Rejections remain high as we head into 2026.
  • Capacity remains the number one reason for the rejections across all modes. 

Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode

• Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections up vs. this same time last year.
  • Very important to keep a close eye on the overall outbound volume to ensure you are securing capacity in this market.
• Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer up significantly this month vs. last month.
  • Similar to flatbed, increased outbound volume will have a significant impact on capacity in the Reefer space.
• White line – Van: Van Rejections come back down slightly vs. last month but remain up vs. this same time last year.
  • Rejections are forecasted to remain higher this year based on the lack of capacity in the market.  

Carrier Authorities

• This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
  • Authorities continue to drop which is causing rejections to increase despite the overall volume decrease compared to 2025.

Demand vs. Capacity Metrics – October 2025

Van Load-to-Truck Ratio

Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio

International

• Current Market
  • Ocean rates started high as we came into 2026 but have started to come back down.
  • Despite soft volumes, overcapacity still remains a long-term problem. 
  • U.S. container imports are projected to hit 2.1M TEU’s in January of 2026.
  • 2025 total U.S. Container imports were 0.4% lower than 2024.
• Key Takeaways
  • Secure space early when moving ocean freight to help control the cost.
    • Consider mini bids to help control the volatility of the market.
  • Factors in tariff-driven cost that are having an impact on heavy international lanes

Cross Border

• Mexican exports will remain strong in 2026.  
• Capacity on cross-boarder lanes continues to tighten as carriers leave the market.
• Cargo theft continues to rise on U.S.-Mexico lanes.
• Canada imposed tariffs could have an impact on export volume into the U.S. in 2026.
• Canadian rates remain stable but can increase as Canadian carrier deal with harsh winter weather.

Fuel Forecast – DOE

• 2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 finished lower at an average $3.631/gallon, and Q2 finished at $3.555/gallon.
• Fuel for Q3 finished at $3.757/gallon and Q4 finished at $3.705/gallon to close out 2025.

Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices
January 1, 2021 – December 31, 2025