May 2026
Market Update
3 KEY TAKEAWAYS
Spot and contract rates continued to trend higher than this time last year. We continue to see capacity rising and higher rejection rates across the U.S.
CAPACITY IS TIGHTENING FASTER THAN EXPECTED
Across every mode, the story in May is the same: capacity is shrinking and rates are climbing. Dry Van rejection rates are up 179% year-over-year. Reefer rejections are up 77% YOY. Spot rates on Dry Van are running 51% above last year. This is not a blip—it’s a trend that is building momentum heading into summer. Customers who are still operating on 2024 planning assumptions need to update them now.
LTL PRICING IS AT ITS MOST AGGRESSIVE SINCE 2023
New LTL bids are running 12.5% above last year and 29% above May 2021 levels. On top of that, the NMFTA’s new density-based 13-tier classification system is reshaping freight costs in ways most shippers haven’t fully accounted for yet— with some low-density shippers projecting cost increases up to 50%. Customers with LTL contracts coming up for renewal in the next 90 days are walking into the toughest pricing environment in two years.
CONTINUED GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT
Three forces are hitting customers simultaneously from the outside: diesel is at $5.60/gallon—up 60% year-over-year— driving fuel surcharges across every mode. Middle East corridor disruptions are adding time and cost to ocean lanes. Uncertainty around the USMCA review is also creating a policy wildcard for anyone with cross-border freight from Mexico or Canada. These aren’t separate issues—they’re compounding. Customers need a flexible, multi-mode strategy heading into summer, not a single-carrier plan.
