2026 will mark the transition from a fragile, fraud-heavy freight recession to a tighter, risk-priced market where shippers who modernize their tech and compliance practices will gain a durable advantage over those who don’t.
Industry analysts warn that we may be on the brink of the largest capacity purge in modern trucking history, with the potential of hundreds of thousands of drivers at risk of exiting the market, bringing “COVID-like spot rates” in its wake. Combined with regulatory shifts that are a primary driver of 2026’s risk landscape, DLX sees three major trajectories:
1. Non-Domiciled CDL Actions
2. English Language Proficiency (ELP) Enforcement
3. Formalized Shipper “Duty of Care” in Carrier Selection.
A mix of stricter enforcement around non-domiciled CDLs, ELP, and safety scores could push a massive number of drivers out of the market. Experts are forecasting up to 500,000 drivers could be removed over the next 1–2 years with rate increases between 5–15%, tightened routing
guides and extended lead times as shippers compete for safe, compliant capacity.
The good news? Shippers have time to prepare, but only if they act before capacity truly tightens.
Read our 2026 MARKET FORECAST to find out how you can prepare.
