December 2025
Market Update
Transportation Trends
General Outlook
- Colder weather and the Christmas season will have an impact on the freight market.
- Capacity continues to tighten.
- Tariff-related delays may impact production, putting pressure on prices.
- Retail spending up to 4.53%
- Labor market:
- Unemployment increased to 4.46% in November.
- Healthcare and social assistance sectors remain strong.
- 30-year fixed mortgage is at 6.26% in December.
- 15-year fixed mortgage is at 5.37%-5.63%.
LTL
- Current Market
- ODFL experienced a drop of 10% in tonnage in November, XPO was down 5.4%.
- Saia and ABF reported modest increases of 1.8% and 3%.
- Demand is still having an impact on outbound volume, however many carriers like ODFL and ABF maintain strict yield strategies.
- NMFC reclassification updates are changing the LTL pricing is shifting to more of a density-based program.
- It is very important to get a better understanding of your dimensions to avoid additional cost.
- Key Takeaways
- Look to lock in contractual pricing were appropriate.
- Review your packaging and dimensions to take advantage of the density-based pricing.
- Continue to build carrier relationships as the market continues to make changes.
- Invest or partner with a company to better utilize automation to help control cost.
Truckload
- Current Market
- Capacity continues to tighten for the TL market.
- Tender Rejection by Mode:
- Van rose 7%
- Reefer rose 14-15%
- Flatbed rose 13-14%
- Freight volume down 6% in 2025 and 4% in December.
- Rates continue to remain strong based on the capacity in the market.
- Tender Rejection by Mode:
- Capacity continues to tighten for the TL market.
- Key Takeaways
- The TL market is at risk due to increased costs and lack of capacity.
- Technology will be key to driving compliance with core carriers.
- Start your planning now! Find a partner that can provide you with technology, visibility, and sustainability in a volatile market.
SONAR
Outbound Tender Volume - All Modes
- Outbound tender volume drop, but capacity remains tight in the market. Volume continues to ride below historic trends.
Outbound Tender Reject - All Modes
- Overall Rejects spike as we head into the final weeks of December.
- Capacity has had a large impact on the rejections, despite the overall volume in 2025 being down vs. historical trends.
Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode
- Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections up vs. this same time last year.
- Very important to keep a close eye on the overall outbound volume to insure you are securing capacity in this market.
- Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer up significantly this month vs. last month.
- Similar to flatbed, increased outbound volume will have a significant impact on capacity in the Reefer space.
- White line – Van: Van Rejections remain up this month vs. last month.
- Rejections continue to fluctuate month- over-month but remain flat since the start of this year.
Carrier Authorities
- This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
- Authorities continue to drop which is causing rejections to increase despite the overall volume decrease compared to 2024.
Demand vs. Capacity Metrics - October 2025
Van Load-to-Truck Ratio
Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio
Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio
International
- Current Market
- Overall global demand remained weak across most major trade lanes.
- Inbound ocean rates remain soft as outbound rates see a slight uplift.
- U.S. container imports reached its lowest level since mid-2023 in December.
- Tariffs remain the uncertainty in this space causing the drop.
- Key Takeaways
- Secure space early when moving ocean freight to help control the cost.
- Consider mini bids to help control the volatility of the market.
- Factor in tariff-driven cost that are having an impact on heavy international lanes.
- Secure space early when moving ocean freight to help control the cost.
- Current Market
Cross Border
- Major road closures across 17 states in Mexico causing disruptions in freight corridors.
- Freight rates remain stable overall despite the issues in Mexico.
- Weather in Canada causing issues on the rail and slower traffic in general.
- Canadian cross board freight despite the weather remains steady.
- Rates generally stable but U.S. capacity issues could have an impact on pricing as we head into the end of the year.
Fuel Forecast - DOE
- 2024 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.761/gallon through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 finished lower at an average $3.631/gallon, and Q2 finished at $3.555/gallon.
- Fuel for Q3 finished at $3.757/gallon and Q4 is tracking $3.753/gallon to close out 2025.
Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices January 1, 2020 - November 30, 2025
