February 2026
Market Update
Transportation Trends
General Outlook
- February 2026 continues to reflect a market looking to shift from historical trends.
- Capacity constraints along with harsh weather conditions continue to have an impact on the freight market.
- Tariffs continue to create uncertainty in the market causing an impact to freight flows.
- Retail spending has flattened as the industry has moved past the Holiday push.
- Labor market:
- Unemployment rate currently stands at 4.43% in February 2026.
LTL
- Current Market
- The LTL market in February 2026 remains stable but growing tighter in some key markets.
- Volume remains soft based on a slower replenishment in the retail industry.
- Larger LTL carriers are looking to excess additional terminal capacity to capture more volume based on the soft market.
- LTL pricing remains firm and disciplined by the LTL carriers despite the declining volumes.
- NMFC reclassification updates are changing the LTL pricing is shifting to more of a density-based program.
- It is very important to get a better understanding of your dimensions to avoid additional cost.
- The LTL market in February 2026 remains stable but growing tighter in some key markets.
- Key Takeaways
- Demand remains soft, with no clear signs of a change in the market.
- Pricing remains disciplined with the LTL carriers.
- Capacity is available, but we are starting to see disruptions in more of the regional market.
- Review your packaging and dimensions to take advantage of the density-based pricing
- Continue to build carrier relationships as the market continues to make changes
- Invest or partner with a company to better utilize automation to help control cost.
Truckload
- Current Market
- Capacity and rates continue to remain high.
- Carrier Rejections continue to tighten for the TL market.
- Tender Rejection by Mode:
- Van – Current Rejection rate is 13%
- Reefer – Current Rejection rate is 20%
- Flatbed – Current Rejection rate 24%
- Tender Rejection by Mode:
- Freight volume remains down as we kick off 2026.
- Capacity remains tight, increasing the spot rates in the market.
- Contracted pricing begins to shift as the carriers start chasing the higher spot rates.
- Key Takeaways
- Overall demand is soft as contracted volumes trend below the past 2 years.
- Spot rates continue to rise as capacity and weather cause disruptions.
- Technology will be key to driving compliance with core carriers.
- Start your planning now! Find a partner that can provide you with technology, visibility, and sustainability in a volatile market.
SONAR
Outbound Tender Volume - All Modes
- Outbound tender volumes starts to come back after the dip in late January. Volume exceeds 2025 slightly for the first time this year.
Outbound Tender Reject - All Modes
- Overall Rejections remain high as we head into 2026.
- Capacity remains the number one reason for the rejections across all modes.
Outbound Tender Reject – by Mode
- Orange Line – Flatbed: Rejections up vs. this same time last year.
- Green line – Reefer: Rejections for Reefer remain up and have been impacting spot rates across the county.
- White line – Van: Van Rejections flatten out vs. last month but remain up vs. this same time last year.
Carrier Authorities
- This graph indicates we have less transportation companies coming into the market based on the current demand.
- Authorities increased this month vs. last month. Demand in the market is allowing carriers to come back into the TL space.
Demand vs. Capacity Metrics - January 2026
Van Load-to-Truck Ratio
Reefer Load-to-Truck Ratio
Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio
International
- Current Market
- Ocean spot rates fell sharply in February.
- Carriers are prioritizing network utilization over price increases currently.
- Despite soft volumes, overcapacity still remains a long-term problem.
- Inbound TEUs up vs. this same time last year.
- Outbound TEUs down vs. this same time last year.
- Overall, both inbound and outbound TEUs are down 14%
- Ocean spot rates fell sharply in February.
- Key Takeaways
- TEU demand remains weak, with no rebound signals
- Capacity continues to pull back.
- Rates are down 40% YoY
- Consider mini bids to help control the volatility of the market.
- Factors in tariff-driven cost that are having an impact on heavy international lanes
Cross Border
- Rejection rates remain high, particularly in Laredo and the South Texas Border.
- North bound volumes remain steady into the U.S.
- Capacity on cross-boarder lanes continues to tighten as carriers leave the market.
- Cargo theft continues to rise on U.S.-Mexico lanes
- Rejection rates in Canada remain high but less extreme than Mexico.
- Winter weather will continue to have an impact on both capacity and rates.
Fuel Forecast - DOE
- 2025 diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.662/gallon.
- Fuel for Q1 2026 is forecasted at $3.566/gallon, Q2 is forecasted at $3.372/gallon, Q3 is forecasted at $3.372/gallon, and Q4 is forecasted at $3.400/gallon.
Energy Information Administration Diesel Fuel Prices January 1, 2021 - December 31, 2025
